Sunday, September 2, 2012

Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

Partisan Trends - Rasmussen Reports™

Very interesting report from Scott Rasmussen
...During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. It’s also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002...

What's even more interesting is how this has been reflected in elections over the last 8 years.

For example in 2008 President Obama was elected 52.9% to 45.7% a 7.2% spread and the partisan divide in November 2008? 7.6%

In 2004 Bush won by 2.4% but the Dems had a 1.6% Partisan advantage (likely do the the war and the independents breaking for Bush because of a decent economy)

in 2006 and 2010 congressional election the partisan divide did hold true in the elections. In 2006 the Democrats gained control of congress and had a 6.1% partisan advantage. In 2010 the GOP gained the house and made major gains in the Senate and they had a 1.6% partisan advantage.

Right now the GOP have a 4.3% advantage and that comes at the expense of not just Dems but also a reduction in independents.

This tells me that the independents are likely to break for the GOP in November.

NOTE: A lot of polls are sampling Democrats at a level even HIGHER than the 7.6% advantage from 2008, if voters vote along partisan trend rates then that is a swing of as much as 12% that is being ignored. This is one of the reason I trust Rasmussen more than others, he seems to be much more vigilant with his methodology. Also, I would discount ANY poll that uses "Adults" or "Registered Voters" at this point those are useless. Only "Likely Voters" matter now.

Ream more about Partisan Divide and Historic Trends

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